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052. A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

052. A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

저자

Yoo‐Geun Ham

저널 정보

Geophysical Research Letters

출간연도

August 2017

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback
Yoo‐Geun Ham

Abstract:
This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern–Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December–February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

PDF: P2017_4
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